唐代治乱分期与气候变化的关系^*          下载免费PDF全文

王晓晴  章典  裴卿  张盛达  李腾 《古地理学报》2020,22(2):385-396

将唐代定量划分为治世与乱世5个时期,探讨了唐代治乱分期与气候变化的关系。治世、乱世的划分标准参考一套系统的战争数据集,并用单因素方差分析的方法验证各项数据指标在治世与乱世间的差异性,从而说明唐代治世、乱世分期的合理性。治世、乱世分期结果如下: 公元618—626年为乱世,公元627—742年为治世,公元743—784年为乱世,公元785—859年为治世,公元860—907年为乱世。方差分析的结果显示,除了总边境战争外,气候变化、总战争、反叛战争、进攻型边境战争、防御型边境战争、农业丰歉等级和人口增长率在治世与乱世之间均表现出显著差异。用战争定量体现唐代社会治世、乱世变化,探讨气候变化与社会治、乱的关系即是探讨气候变化与战争的关系,乱世的主要战争类型是反叛战争和防御型边境战争,治世的主要战争类型是进攻型边境战争。相关分析结果表明,唐代温度降低、降水减少的时期,农业收成减少导致资源供给不足,更容易发生反叛战争;温度暖期、降水充沛的时期,农业产量提高,刺激了快速增长的人口,在技术改善能力有限、土地资源一定的情况下,更易发生以对外扩张为目的的边境战争,因此气候变化是影响唐代社会治乱变化的重要原因之一。  相似文献   

A 10-year wave energy resource assessment and trends of Indonesia based on satellite observations     

Amiruddin  Ribal Agustinus  Khaeruddin  Thamrin Sri Astuti 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(8):86-93

Wave energy resource assessment and trends around Indonesian's ocean has been carried out by means of analyzing satellite observations. Wave energy flux or wave power can be approximated using parameterized sea states derived from satellite data. Unfortunately, only some surface parameters can be measured from remote sensing satellites, for example for ocean surface waves: significant wave height. Others, like peak wave period and energy period are not available, but can instead be estimated using empirical models. The results have been assessed by meteorological season. The assessment shows clearly where and when the wave power resource is promising around Indonesian's ocean. The most striking result was found from June to August, in which about 30–40 kW/m(the 90 th percentile: 40–60 kW/m, the 99th percentile: 50–70 kW/m) wave power energy on average has been found around south of the Java Island. The significant trends of wave energy at the 95% level have also been studied and it is found that the trends only occurred for the extreme cases, which is the 99th percentile(i.e.,highest 1%). Wave power energy could increase up to 150 W/m per year. The significant wave heights and wave power have been compared with the results obtained from global wave model hindcast carried out by wave model WAVEWATCH III. The comparisons indicated excellent agreements.  相似文献   

Estimating soil loss of given return period by USLE-M-type models     

Vincenzo Pampalone  Vito Ferro 《水文研究》2020,34(11):2324-2336

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新型装配式混凝土框架连接节点抗震性能试验     

张健新  张标  戎贤  杨洪渭 《地震工程与工程振动》2020,(2):164-170

为推广装配式混凝土框架结构的应用,提出3种不同的新型装配式钢筋混凝土框架中节点连接形式,进行低周往复荷载试验。对比各试件的破坏形态、滞回性能、刚度退化、累积耗能和节点剪切变形等抗震指标。研究结果表明:采用方钢管连接的装配式混凝土节点呈现梁端弯曲破坏,采用工字钢连接或对拉螺栓连接的节点呈现节点核心区剪切破坏。采用方钢管的连接形式既能改善节点核心区的破坏形态,又能提高其承载能力、变形能力、耗能能力和梁端转动能力,同时显著改善节点的滞回特性,减小核心区的剪切变形。在弹塑性和塑性变形阶段,采用方钢管连接形式的装配式混凝土节点的抗震性能优于工字钢连接和对拉螺栓连接的节点。此外,采用工字钢连接形式比对拉螺栓连接形式的节点具有更高的承载能力、耗能能力和较小的核心区剪切变形。  相似文献   

Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin,Kenya          下载免费PDF全文

Vincent Omondi Odongo  Christiaan van der Tol  Pieter R. van Oel  Frank M. Meins  Robert Becht  Japheth Onyando  Zhongbo Su 《水文研究》2015,29(15):3276-3293

Recent hydro‐climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35 × 10⁶ m³ year^?1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Effective elastic thickness of the lithosphere from joint inversion in western China and its implications*          下载免费PDF全文

Wen Shi  Shi Chen  Jiancheng Han 《地震科学（英文版）》2020,33(1):1-10

The western China lies in the convergence zone between Eurasian and Indian plates. It is an ideal place to study the lithosphere dynamics and tectonic evolutions on the continental Earth. The lithospheric strength is a key factor in controlling the lithosphere dynamics and deformations. The effective elastic thickness (T_e) of the lithosphere can be used to address the lithospheric strength. Previous researchers only used one of the admittance or coherence methods to investigate the T_e in the western China. Moreover, most of them ignored the internal loads of the lithosphere during the T_e calculation, which can produce large biases in the T_e estimations. To provide more reliable T_e estimations, we used a new joint inversion method that integrated both admittance and coherence techniques to compute the T_e in this study, with the WGM2012 gravity data, the ETOPO1 topographic data, and the Moho depths from the CRUST1.0 model. The internal loads are considered and investigated using the load ratio (F). Our results show that the joint inversion method can yield reliable T_e and F values. Based on the analysis of T_e and F distributions, we suggest (1) the northern Tibetan Plateau could be the front edge of the plate collision of Eurasian and Indian plates; (2) the southern and part of central Tibetan Plateau have a strong lithospheric mantle related to the rigid underthrusting Indian plate; (3) the southeastern Tibetan Plateau may be experiencing the delamination of lithosphere and upwelling of asthenosphere.  相似文献   

场地类别分类方案研究     

陈国兴  丁杰发  方怡  彭艳菊  李小军 《岩土力学》2020,41(11):3509-3522

基于性能的抗震设计，要求工程师设计出具有预期抗震性能的结构，一个关键因素是地震作用的确定，这在很大程度上取决于局部场地条件。通过收集和分析北京、苏州和唐山城区956个钻孔资料，建立地表20 m和30 m深土层走时平均剪切波速VS20和VS30的关系式；现场钻探获取北京城区深105 m的典型钻孔原状土样，试验给出各类土体动剪切模量和阻尼比曲线；建立北京城区170个钻孔的场地反应计算模型，采用Nakamura提出的HVSR法和陈国兴等提出的弱震法估算场地基本周期TS值，结合国内外现行抗震规范的场地分类及一些学者对场地分类的研究成果，提出两种新的场地分类建议方案：基于等效剪切波速VSE和覆盖土层厚度H（地表至剪切波速VS ≥ 500 m/s的基岩深度）的双指标场地分类方案及基于VSE、H和TS的三指标场地分类方案。提出的场地分类方案对我国现行抗震规范场地分类方法的改进有参考价值。  相似文献   

辽东湾海洋工程可靠性设计的海冰参数选取     

马玉贤  关湃  许宁  许有良  袁帅  刘永青  于福祥 《海洋工程》2019,37(3):136-142

海冰参数的合理取值是海洋工程海冰灾害风险评估的重要内容。利用1950—2018年的冰情等级(5个等级)数据,进行了1950—2018、1950—1990、1991—2018三种情景下的回归分析,确定了不同时期的冰情等级概率分布密度函数。利用鲅鱼圈雷达观测站2002—2017年的海冰现场实测资料,分别对鲅鱼圈附近海域一般冰厚、最大冰厚、最小冰厚进行概率分布拟合。基于上述概率分布结果,给出不同冰情等级的重现期,进而对海冰作业条件给出的设计参考值进行评价。结果表明:1990年以后2级、3级冰情重现期相对1990年之前变小,4级、5级冰情重现期相对1990年之前变大,规范给出重现期范围已不能代表辽东湾冬季海冰情况。本研究成果可为辽东湾海洋工程可靠性设计提供重要数据支撑。  相似文献   

Stochastic bivariate time series models of waves in the North Sea and their application in simulation-based design     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

In this paper, we present and evaluate three long-term wave models for application in simulation-based design of ships and marine structures. Designers and researchers often rely on historical weather data as a source for ocean area characteristics based on hindcast datasets or in-situ measurements. The limited access and size of historical datasets reduces repeatability of simulations and analyses, making it difficult to assess the sampling variability of performance and loads on marine vessels and structures. Markov, VAR and VARMA wave models, producing independent long-term time series of significant wave height (H_s) and spectral peak period (T_p), is presented as possible solutions to this problem. The models are tested and compared by addressing how the models affect interpretation of design concepts and the ability to replicate statistical and physical characteristics of the wave process. Our results show that the VAR and VARMA models perform sufficiently in describing design performance, but does not capture the physical process fully. The Markov model is found to perform worst of the tested models in the applied tests, especially for measures covering several consecutive sea states.  相似文献   

扬子陆块~2.0 Ga的区域变质事件对南北黄陵古元古代差异演化的启示     

陈超  苑金玲  郭盼  黎方云  孔令耀  杨金香  毛新武 《中国地质》2020,47(4):899-913

扬子陆核黄陵地区发育较为完整的太古宙—古元古代片麻岩、表壳岩组合(即崆岭杂岩),前人调查研究认为南北黄陵Ar-Pt1具有一致的物质组成和地质演化过程。笔者分别对南北黄陵太古宙花岗质片麻岩进行锆石年代学研究发现,北黄陵2件样品(HL013-1、HL013-2)均存在大量锆石发育岩浆核-变质边结构,都获得～2.8 Ga原岩结晶年龄和～2.0 Ga变质年龄;而南黄陵1件样品(HL005-3)以具振荡环带结构的岩浆锆石为主,仅获得～2.9 Ga原岩结晶年龄。结合前人研究成果发现,～2.0 Ga的变质年龄在北黄陵太古宙—古元古代的花岗片麻岩、表壳岩中广泛发育,而在南黄陵相似建造中均未获得,一定程度上说明北黄陵地区广泛遭受～2.0 Ga的区域变质作用而南黄陵不发育,南北黄陵在古元古代可能处在不同地块或者同一地块不同部位。2.1～1.6 Ga的构造岩浆事件的分布特点说明扬子陆块可能存在多条古元古代造山带,扬子陆块古元古代以多块体拼贴为特点,广泛记录2.1～1.6 Ga的构造岩浆事件说明扬子陆块是全球哥伦比亚超大陆的重要组成部分。  相似文献